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Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2026
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Abstract Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and the human environment. Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental understanding of flash drought occurrence. This study identifies global hotspots for flash drought from 1980–2015 via anomalies in evaporative stress and the standardized evaporative stress ratio. Flash drought hotspots exist over Brazil, the Sahel, the Great Rift Valley, and India, with notable local hotspots over the central United States, southwestern Russia, and northeastern China. Six of the fifteen study regions experienced a statistically significant increase in flash drought during 1980–2015. In contrast, three study regions witnessed a significant decline in flash drought frequency. Finally, the results illustrate that multiple pathways of research are needed to further our understanding of the regional drivers of flash drought and the complex interactions between flash drought and socioeconomic impacts.more » « less
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Abstract. Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial watercycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climatechange on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modellingframeworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leadingto varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describevarious processes take different forms and are generally accessible onlyfrom within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered aholistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yetsuch an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of modelevaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in theirsimulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This studyprovides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs aredesigned. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and humanwater use sectors included in models that provide simulations for theInter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). Wedevelop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance modelintercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH,JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments.WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5,CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. Weconclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similarequations for various processes, in the end these equations have beenadjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters orspecific variables. The similarities and differences found among the modelsanalysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertaintyin multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, andintegrate new processes.more » « less
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